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3 ex-CMs lose in tribal state; PDP single largest in border state

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) along with its ally, the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), won an absolute majority in Jharkhand Assembly elections on Tuesday.

The BJP-AJSU alliance secured 42 seats. The BJP alone won 37 in the 81-member House.

However, in Jammu & Kashmir, a fractured verdict opened up several possibilities of forming a government. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), led by Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, won 28 seats to emerge as the single largest in the 87-member Assembly, followed by the BJP, which got 25 seats.

Five-phase elections to the two states were held from November 24 to December 20. The results were announced on Tuesday.

The National Conference, which ruled Jammu & Kashmir for the last six years, surprised even itself by securing only 15 seats as it was plagued by strong anti-incumbency. Its former coalition partner, the Congress, won 12 seats.

Modi’s ambitious “Mission 44+ campaign” in Jammu & Kashmir saw the BJP put up its best performance yet in the state though it fell well short of a majority as it failed to make a debut in the Muslim-dominated Kashmir Valley. It also drew a blank in Ladakh.

All gains of the party came from the Hindu-majority Jammu region.
Separatist-turned politician Sajjad Lone’s People Conference won two seats.

The J&K People Democratic Front (Secular) and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) won one seat each. Independents got three seats.

Describing the results as “below our expectations”, PDP leader Mehbooba Mufti said her party “is in no hurry as it examines options for partners”.

“Our priority will not be to cobble together a government by hook or crook. It will take time to explore possibilities and formation of a government to meet people’s expectations and good governance. It is difficult to say when it will materialise,” she told reporters in Srinagar.

The Congress quickly volunteered to support the PDP to form the next government in Jammu & Kashmir.

“We are always open. We have allied with the PDP in the past,” said Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad.

The PDP and the Congress were being seen by their rivals as natural allies as Mufti Mohammad Sayeed was a Congress leader before he formed his Kashmir-based regional party.

The Congress has nothing to lose after its colossal defeats in the parliamentary elections and it can only benefit in such a situation, said its leaders.

BJP president Amit Shah said: “All options are open. We have the option of forming the government, supporting someone and being part of a government led by someone.”

Shah also said: “All three options are open. The BJP will see what initiative the other parties take and decide accordingly.”

Outgoing Chief Minister Omar Abdullah said his party, the National Conference, was punished by anti-incumbency and anger among voters over September’s devastating floods in the state. But his party was set to remain relevant to the formation of the next government as it had won 15 MLAs when everyone had written it off.

"The National Conference will be a serious player in whatever unveils in Jammu & Kashmir in the next few days," Abdullah said. He did not even rule out supporting the PDP, his arch-rival. That could happen "if Mufti (PDP leader Mufti Mohammed Sayeed).calls," Abdullah said.

Abdullah also refused to rule out an alliance with the BJP. "It is 99 per cent no but 1 per cent yes but it depends on so many things," he said. The National Conference was part of the National Democratic Alliance during the Vajpayee government at the Centre and may not find it out of the question to support the BJP in case the BJP-PDP equation fails to emerge.

Modi in his extensive campaign had appealed for a stable government, promising all-round development for solving big issues like Maoist menace, corruption and indiscriminate mining. The previous two assembly elections in the state in 2005 and 2009 had produced  fractured mandate leading to repeated instability.

In Jammu & Kashmir

Scenario 1:  PDP+BJP+PC will form govt
*  PDP patron Mufti Mohammad Sayeed CM for full term with BJP deputy CM
*  Sayeed and a BJP MLA may share the post for three years each
*  Instead of BJP MLA, Lone could become deputy CM or even CM for 3 yrs

Scenario 2: PDP govt with outside support from Cong+Others

Scenario 3: BJP+PC+others form govt with NC support

In Jharkhand

*  If BJP favours a tribal face, Shiv Shankar Oraon is the front-runner among others like Sudharshan Bhagat and Anant Ojha.
*  Otherwise, former deputy chief minister Raghubar Das is likely to hold the reins in Jharkhand