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SRINAGAR: A strange thing happened in Srinagar four days ago. Syed Ali Shah Geelani, the Hurriyat hawk, suddenly decided he wouldn’t mind talking to the Indian government.

Strange because for years now, he has rebuffed every talk offer, every invite falling prey to the five conditions he has stuck to - the foremost being that India must first recognize Kashmir as an international dispute.

The reaction from New Delhi was stranger - complete silence. Geelani waited for an invitation that never came. For Kashmir watchers, this was just another small chapter in the chess game that passes off for India’s Kashmir Policy.

Geelani’s new approachability came within days of the centrally-appointed interlocutors submitting their report to the home minister P Chidambaram. Dileep Padgoakar, Radha Kumar and M M Ansari spent an entire year trying to make contact with the separatists, both the moderates within the motley band as well as the hardline Geelani faction, without success.

The composition of the central team was also a combination of the cross currents of Delhi’s Kashmir policy. While Padgoankar and Ansari were selected by the home ministry, Radha Kumar was handpicked by the PMO. It’s said their subsequent bickering and infighting reflected this faultline.

It’s an open secret in Kashmir that for most of the moderate Hurriyat leaders in Srinagar, the nudge to ignore the central team came from their minders in the Intelligence Bureau, known here as the "Agency". In Kashmir the Agency is the Indian version of the Deep State, the guardians of the national interest, seeing political initiatives as irritants by well-meaning amateurs. It’s the Agency that handles some mainstream parties, guides and finances sundry moderate separatist groups and pays for the upkeep of dozens of obscure dailies.

The dozen visits by the interlocutors threw up many such twists in the plot. On the one hand, the central team was trying to shore up mainstream parties like the PDP and the National Conference, encouraging some MLAs to float their own parties to "widen the political space", and on the other hand, it was being checkmated by the very agencies of the ministry they reported to.

Geelani’s surprise thawing has sparked-off intense interest in the moderate camp. Some see it as a vindication of their stand in favour of talks with the central Government, provided it is at the level of the Prime Minister, others fear if Geelani gets out of his corner, he might hog all the space that the moderates have carved out for themselves between the mainstream and the hardline represented by Geelani. Yet others see it as a classic ploy by the Deep State, a subtle threat to either come to the table now or be ignored.

The speculation here is that Geelani’s statements are the result of back channel negotiations between the PMO. This is only getting strengthened by the discordant noises coming out of the home ministry in Delhi. Despite Geelani pointedly not referring to his five-point formula, dailies are full of "sources" in the home ministry saying the five- point formula is unacceptable.

For Geelani, it’s a win-win situation. After lying dormant for a year, he has again occupied centrestage in separatist politics. The past couple of years have been tough on him. Last year’s turmoil exposed his lack of control over the streets of Kashmir.

This year most of his strike calls have not evoked much response, and his focus on social issues, like banning mobile phones for women and co-ed education, have lost him respect from the average Kashmiri. Sources in his inner circle concede that all this has perhaps led to the perception that Geelani had withdrawn from active separatist politics. In Kashmir, the shadow of Pakistan always looms large. Here again Geelani is on a sticky wicket. His reported advice to Pakistan’s foreign minister Hina Rabbani that Pakistan must put its house in order, reflects the confusion in the man who now finds no takers for his "Kashmir Banega Pakistan" slogan.

The growing distance is made clear from his recent snub to United Jehad Council chief, Syed Salauideen. In his press conference on Thursday, he said, "We take our own decisions here."

So as the Chinar changes colour in Srinagar, all eyes are on the grand old man of Hyderpora. What new hue will he show next? Is the stage really is being set for a Kashmir breakthrough? Is the withdrawal of AFPSA from some areas in the state, the peace offering that will bring Geelani to the table? Is troubled Pakistan on board, or as in the past, has the Deep State has made another chess move?